Florida Market Update - January 24’
Blue Bay Fund I
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Investors, subscribers, and generally curious, welcome to my Florida Market Update Report! For many of you who have been on my email newsletter, I am transitioning writing my market updates from the email over to the website. This will allow a more consistent formatting as well as quick reference at any time for any reader to go back in time and see how my thoughts about the market played out in real time. I will not always be accurate, but I study the market and we stay on top of the data. This allows us to truly partner with our real estate investing clients to advise them on where the future market will be headed as well this allows my capital investors to confidently invest their retirement, savings, or lazy capital into well-vetted, secured, and performing assets.
Needless to say the market, even here in once SUPER hot Florida, has indeed changed. We will be examining three main metrics for every market update. These metrics will include heat map photos of the state of Florida with the data reflective of what is being aggregated from the Gov Census Bureau as well as from the MLS and ATTOM. By having this data at the tip of our fingers, I can stay abreast of short-term flexes in the market as well as long-term trends. You will enjoy the benefits of our study and due diligence.
JANUARY 2024 FLORIDA SFR MARKET REPORT
FLORIDA SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENCE MONTHLY INVENTORY
MONTHLY INVENTORY
This data is based on spot data for a specific time period and market. It is a measure for Active Listings for current month divided by Sold + Expired listings from prior month. This data is a RAW Score report, reflecting the actual numerical value for that particular Metropolitan Statistical Area "MSA". Raw scores do not rank or compare a market’s score against any other market; multiple markets could have the same or similar raw scores.
The Heat Map Key to the left indicates what the corresponding MSA colors mean. Red equals very few months of inventory, <1, while pink equals the most months of inventory, >8.
While this may be alarming to some who are not residents of FL, this is actually a common cycle. Winter always brings buying and selling to a crawl, and you can see that as we left the fall season and entered the winter season, the monthly investor has indeed increased. What was a surprise was the significant jump in the Punta Gorda and the Naples/ Marco Island MSA’s. These MSA’s seem to have been struggling more than other MSA’s from the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, which made landfall in Sept of 2022. There were large swaths of properties damaged, and a lot of homeowners were paid their insurance and then sold the property to storm damage renovation specialists for deep discounts. This, by the way, is a great strategy for the real estate investor but not so much for the homeowner. Outside of these two MSAs’, the rest of Florida is actually “par-for-the-course” as far as seasonally affected market cycles.
FLORIDA SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENCE DAYS ON MARKET
DAYS ON MARKET
This data is based on spot data for a specific time period and market. The Days On Market metric is the median number of days between a property’s listing and when it is noted as ‘sold’ or ‘off the market'. This data is a RAW Score report, reflecting the actual numerical value for that particular Metropolitan Statistical Area "MSA". Raw scores do not rank or compare a market’s score against any other market; multiple markets could have the same or similar raw scores.
The Heat Map Key to the left indicates what the corresponding MSA colors mean. Red equals very few days on the market, <45, while pink equals the most days on the market, >180.
The longest Days On Market held at 71 in Oct and Nov of 23’. In December, the Longest DOM jumped to 79. While this may be surprising remember we experience a very slow season here in FL during the winter months. If traditional migration patterns hold true then we should start to see these numbers decrease come late spring early summer. Remember, right now, we simply want to stay aware of how long properties, on average, are sitting on the market. If you would like to see specific numbers for an MSA that you are interested in, you can always click on the photo and take a closer look.
FLORIDA SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENCE AVERAGE LISTING PRICE
AVERAGE LIST PRICE
This data is based on spot data for a specific time period and market. The Average List Price metric is the average price of all properties listed during the month. This data is a RAW Score report, reflecting the actual numerical value for that particular Metropolitan Statistical Area "MSA". Raw scores do not rank or compare a market’s score against any other market; multiple markets could have the same or similar raw scores.
The Heat Map Key to the left indicates what the corresponding MSA colors mean. Red equals very inexpensive properties, <$200K, while pink equals luxury properties, >$800K.
The heat maps above have remained pretty consistent, and it seems that the average listing price in FL is hovering around $770K per home. Obviously, you can look at the South Florida market and see that the average is close to $1M A.L.P., whereas in Central FL, the average A.L.P. is much lower. To view specific data on your preferred MSA, just click on the photo above. There have been no significant movements in price during the last quarter in 2023. Time will tell come early Spring into the Summer of next year. My belief is that Florida has leveled out and we are seeing new norms as far as pricing goes.
That wraps up my first Florida Market Update Report for 2024. From this point forward you will be able to track how the Florida market and even the MSA that you are interested in is doing and how the market is fairing. This will allow my real estate investors to determine the best exit strategies as well. For my Investor Club members this will help you understand how we are evaluating the market and where we are looking to place our capital so that you can partner with us into our loans.
With Honor,
Edwin D Epperson III,
Manager& CEO
- Soli Deo Gloria
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