Florida Market Update - April 24’
Blue Bay Fund I
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Hello investors! As many of you know April began several schools ’ Spring Break here in FL. My two boys, who live in GA, started their spring break the same week, so Carolina and I were able to get them for the same week. We had a great time, as well as, my father came down to visit from KY. One of the great pleasures and joys that I have is being able to enjoy the same pastimes as my dad, one of those being smoking a good cigar. So, being that Tampa is the cigar mecca of the United States, of course, I took him to the J.C. Newman cigar factory here in Ybor City. It is truly a historical property rich with Cuban and Hungarian Jewish lineage, all focused on cigars. If you have never been to the J.C. Newman Cigar Factory I would HIGHLY encourage you to book their factory tour. It's only $15 per person and lasts about 1.5 hours.
One more aspect of this past Spring Break week, which I loved, was the one-on-one times my father had with his grandsons. Sometimes, life can get busy, and we are so distracted. I was honored enough to be in the kitchen helping Carolina do the dishes, and I saw my dad talking with my youngest. I'm not sure what they were speaking about, but it seemed engaging, and my youngest was enjoying "Grandpa Storys," so much so he asked my father after the story he told her, "Grandpa, do you have any more stories?" I took this as a lesson: spend time with your loved ones. Your parents, grandparents, and children. As the scripture says, tomorrow is not promised to anyone. Take full advantage of your time with loved ones. Don't let the pursuit of wealth, fame, or power cloud and distract you from the truly important things.
How are we fairing as we enter into March and wrap up our first quarter of 2024? I want to remind you that the data we can pull is between one - two months trailing. This means the most recent complete data is one - two months behind the current month we are reporting, so please understand there is a lag in what's able to be reported and what's happening on the ground in real-time. So with that little disclosure laid forth, here are some thoughts and data points on data aggregated from the MLS as well the over all market for FL.AY 2024 FLORIDA MARKET REPORT 204 FLORIDA MARKET
APRIL 2024 FLORIDA SFR MARKET REPORT
FLORIDA SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENCE MONTHLY INVENTORY
MONTHLY INVENTORY
This data is based on spot data for a specific time period and market. It is a measure for Active Listings for current month divided by Sold + Expired listings from prior month. This data is a RAW Score report, reflecting the actual numerical value for that particular Metropolitan Statistical Area "MSA". Raw scores do not rank or compare a market’s score against any other market; multiple markets could have the same or similar raw scores.
The Heat Map Key to the left indicates what the corresponding MSA colors mean. Red equals very few months of inventory, <1, while pink equals the most months of inventory, >8.
Last month, when I compared January 24 to December 24, there was a "blip" in the monthly inventory for Punta Gorda and Naples. Monthly inventory shot up to almost 7.5 months respectively. That came back down in January, but we are continuing to see a rise in Monthly inventory across the state. Punta Gorda, Naples/ Marco Island, and the Cape Coral/Fort Myers MSA's are all above four months of inventory, along with Sebastian Beach MSA. Investors need to know that your hold time, especially once the project is complete, could be much longer than expected. Be sure your lender is willing to offer an extension, and if not, begin looking for a refinance for those short-term loans.
For Blue Bay Fund I investors know that the fund is closely watching these metrics to adjust the terms offered to our debt products to investors. We want to be in the best position possible to be flexible yet pivot should the economy take off or begin a severe correction. Currently, capital partners in the Blue Bay Fund I are enjoying a solid 7.5 - 9% return annualized on 1st position loans secured to investment properties. If you want your investment capital SECURED and backed by real estate paying steady monthly returns, then I would welcome a phone call to discuss our customizable fund and how our unique and proven approach to diversification can help shore up your retirement and investment accounts heading into Q3 and Q4 of 2024 and beyond.
FLORIDA SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENCE DAYS ON MARKET
DAYS ON MARKET
This data is based on spot data for a specific time period and market. The Days On Market metric is the median number of days between a property’s listing and when it is noted as ‘sold’ or ‘off the market'. This data is a RAW Score report, reflecting the actual numerical value for that particular Metropolitan Statistical Area "MSA". Raw scores do not rank or compare a market’s score against any other market; multiple markets could have the same or similar raw scores.
The Heat Map Key to the left indicates what the corresponding MSA colors mean. Red equals very few days on the market, <45, while pink equals the most days on the market, >180.
In February, Days On Market, "DOM," has decreased across the board. The Tallahassee MSA is in the 45 or less DOM category. For the most part, DOM is hovering around 60 as of February. Remember, we are only able to look at the most recent data, which is still two months in arrears, so the actual data on the ground right now may be longer or shorter for the current DOM. Florida is known for slowing market movement during the winter months. As we enter spring and soon summer, properties may very well begin to fly off the shelf. This could cause the market inventory (previous section) to decrease as more and more properties are bought and sold. We will be keeping an eye on the average DOM
in the coming months and have a more historically accurate approach by late May or early June. My caution to real estate investors is to continue to be slightly bearish in your estimations for listing timelines and overall hold timelines. It’s best to set expectations early on. We still have several national and regional headwinds to face this year, including inflation and the presidential election cycle. These, among other factors, could negatively or positively impact FL residents and relocatees.
FLORIDA SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENCE AVERAGE LISTING PRICE
AVERAGE LIST PRICE
This data is based on spot data for a specific time period and market. The Average List Price metric is the average price of all properties listed during the month. This data is a RAW Score report, reflecting the actual numerical value for that particular Metropolitan Statistical Area "MSA". Raw scores do not rank or compare a market’s score against any other market; multiple markets could have the same or similar raw scores.
The Heat Map Key to the left indicates what the corresponding MSA colors mean. Red equals very inexpensive properties, <$200K, while pink equals luxury properties, >$800K.
Since last month’s report, which displayed up to Febraury's data, there has been a pretty big shift downward in A.L.P. Almost every single MSA has dropped in their ALP, with only the following MSA’s seeing an increase of at least 3.5% or more:
Homosassa Springs = $403K —> $419K
….. Yup that’s it.
I would not see this as any real key indicator, except that property values have plateaued, which is a good thing for home buyers. For our real estate borrowers, you will need to take this into consideration when calculating after-repair value appreciation. The market is not the same as it was back in 21-22'. Perceived value by the end homebuyer must be real and meaningful. Simply slapping paint, new carpet, and countertops will not get you a massive appreciation for the property.
This wraps up my April Florida Market Report. I trust you enjoyed your time with your family during the Spring Break. If you found this monthly Florida Market Report valuable, please share it on your social media and with your friends. Life is always better with friends! I’m looking forward to providing Blue Bay Fund updates and what the future holds for those in my investor club!
With Honor,
Edwin D Epperson III,
Manager& CEO
- Soli Deo Gloria
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